Sheridan Forbes, early stage wireless consultant and investor, was asked to comment on emerging opportunities in the wireless space. Sheridan shares with us her thoughts on how this market unfolds and who will be the winners.

I’m a Mobile Web warrior. My cell phone determines location, provides maps and directions, locates nearby facilities and promotions, accesses my corporate database including email, carries out secure financial transactions remotely or with the nearby vending machine, using real-time audio, streaming video conferencing and connects to the Web, anywhere and at anytime.

What year is it? 2001? Nope, but because of the hype, everyone believes that our cell phones can do all of this today. In reality, I predict that it’s more like 2005. Why? What I’m calling the Mobile Web has some of the same issues that 1995’s Worldwide Web had – competing standards, low bandwidth, availability and inter-operability of carriers, ubiquity, ease of use and technology. To sum it up – the Mobile Web needs infrastructure, now.

By the end of 2000, the Mobile Web had six million users. By 2005, this number will increase to 484 million users predicts research firm IDC. This is amazing given that the Web has only grown to 261 million users after five years of growth. Why the optimism?

In 1995, corporations barely had heard of the Internet, let alone hypertext, and were unclear whether they really needed an Internet, an intranet and an extranet. Besides, the Internet required PCs for access. In 2001, the Web is a base for wireless applications and the Mobile Web can use just a phone, albeit a fancy one. On-the-go professionals have a pretty good idea about what the Mobile Web could be and know that they want directions, maps, traffic alerts, the stock market, songs and video. More importantly they want access to their corporate systems so that they can conduct work anywhere, including being on another continent, anytime.

They are not alone. According to the Yankee Group, over half of the U.S. workforce - 70 million workers spend 48% of the time away from their primary workplace. This creates a tremendous demand for mobile access to company information such as enterprise information portals, product guides, customer databases and business metrics as well as company processes like email, quotation systems and customer support systems.

The Mobile Web is a rare example of a market needing technology, now!

My partner, Valori Stitt, and I researched and interviewed over 1,500 Mobile Web companies over the last four years. The result is a Taxonomy of the Mobile Web that segments the market into Players (portals and carriers) and Enablers (content creators, syndicators, application developers, middleware vendors, platform providers, telecom/communications equipment suppliers, technology inventors, device manufacturers and mobile integrators). The Taxonomy helps us to understand markets trends and weed out the winners from the losers. And, this gives us an edge for making the right investment choices.

Some of our key picks for companies:

For the Players: carriers Vodofone and DoCoMo are almost unbeatable due to Vodofone’s ability to vertically acquire cellular providers and DoCoMo’s strength in creating a keiretsu through alliances with AOL, MSN and AT&T Wireless. However, watch the American 3G spectrum auction in July 2001 – there may be some wildcards. As for the portals, voice is the killer application. The problem is that multi-lingual natural language speech systems are embryonic at best. Young companies like Tellme, BeVocal and Talk2 have good initial voice portal offerings that are improving monthly. But AOL, MSN and Yahoo can easily add Nuance, Speechworks and Lernout & Halspie voice technologies to their already branded products and squash any competitor.

The Enablers segments are broad and unwieldy, requiring significant research. With the exception of equipment suppliers and device manufacturers, most companies occupying these segments are small startups that lack leadership and the ability to execute. But, there are some clear forerunners: One of my favorite segments is the Java application mobilizers or JAMS. They’ve already displaced the transcoders in capabilities and offer a winning solution for carriers and enterprises alike. Their offerings interface any Java-enabled application to any Java-enabled device including popular brands such as RIM, Palm, Nokia, Motorola, and Psion. In addition to the application interface, they offer enterprise-level security, dynamic service provisioning and “always connected” features that protocols, such as WAP, do not provide. Companies providing Java-enabled platforms include: ATG, Bonita Software, Inc., Brience, Espial, Mobileum and Viafone.

The mobile integrators will continue to influence the Fortune 500 to mobilize corporate applications. Look for Aether Technologies, 724 Solutions and AvantGo to consistently dominate in this arena. I also like DiamondCluster, the merger between Internet integrator Diamond Technologies and telephony consulting firm Cluster Consulting. The blended knowledge of both the Internet and telecommunications combined with their Fortune 100 and carrier client bases make them one to watch. Both Valori and I are worried about the viability of the syndicator segment, those companies that syndicate content and applications to the Players. In 2001, they look like only “middlemen”. Also, with content contracts expiring in the next two years, we’re betting on the content and application developers securing contracts directly with portals and carriers. The result is that InfoSpace and Phone.com may lose where the undervalued InfoUSA gains.

The Mobile Web is as exciting and innovative as its older sibling, the Worldwide Web. And, because of its hope and promise, the Mobile Web is attracting just as many speculators as the dotcoms of yesteryear. Roger McNamee says it best – “Investing in wireless really does take serious research, and I think it helps enormously to spend your entire life looking into businesses, because the number of charlatans masquerading as CEOs just boggles the mind.”

My advice – do your homework and call in the experts. The enormous technical and regulatory aspects of the Mobile Web make it only an opportunity for the wise few.

Sheridan Forbes is one of the early pioneers in applying the Web to business. Considered by many as the mother of the portal business model, Sheridan is a co-creator of Alta Vista. Since 1997, Sheridan’s focus is the Mobile Web. She has published a number of articles and treatises on this new evolving market and is currently developing a taxonomy of over 2000 Mobile Web companies. She can be contacted at sheridanforbes@yahoo.com.